MONETIZATION UTILITY · SHEET 12

LTV-to-CAC Bid Cap &
Cash Runway Calculator.

Scaling user acquisition consumes capital faster than store payout terms recover it. Model your cash runway, calculate peak capital drawdown, and find your maximum capital-safe bid cap.

This is for growth and finance leads sizing how aggressively a UA campaign can scale without running out of working capital. Run it before committing to a higher daily spend target or bid cap, since store payout delays and slow-paced LTV curves can create a capital shortfall long before the campaign becomes profitable. It also separates the bid cap your unit economics can support from the bid cap your cash reserves can actually fund.

FILE · RUNWAY_12

Capital Inputs

01 · Starting Cash Reserves ($) $
02 · Daily Paid Installs Users
03 · Current CPA / CAC ($) $
04 · Expected LTV at Day 180 ($) $
05 · LTV Curve Pacing Exponent (d)
06 · Target Payback Window Days
07 · Target Annual IRR (%) %
08 · Store Reinvestment Delay Days

Capital Runway Outcomes

Max Exposure (Drawdown)
$0.00
Deepest capital point reached during scaling payback cycles
Estimated Peak Deficit Day
Day 0
The point where accumulated inflows begin to offset outflows
Max Safe Daily Scale
0 / day
Highest daily user volume supported safely by starting capital
UA CAMPAIGN CAPITAL TIMELINE: CUMULATIVE BALANCE OVER 180 DAYS
Cumulative Cash Balance
Starting Reserves
Capital Exposure Zone
Insolvency Threshold
SCALING BID BOUNDARIES: CURRENT VS. CAPITAL-SAFE LIMITS
Capital-Safe Bid Cap
IRR-Targeted Bid Cap
Current CPA Selection
WORKING CAPITAL BUDGET CALIBRATIONS
Current Configuration
$0 / mo
Spending at $4.00 CPA
Capital exposure status
Solvent
Runway stays solvent throughout campaign timeframe
02Capital Allocation Strategy

The mechanics of scaling working capital.

User acquisition campaigns fail not because their LTV is bad, but because payout cycles dry up starting capital reserves before investments break even.

COHORT RECONCILIATION

The Reinvestment Lag

Apple and Google typically distribute payouts 30 days after month-end (net 30 to 45). Ad networks pay weekly or monthly. This lag creates a temporary capital exposure deficit that scales linearly with volume.

Friction Point: Store Term Delays
CASH FLOW VELOCITY

LTV Pacing Curves

A frontloaded LTV pacing exponent (e.g. 0.20) returns cash rapidly, reducing the capital deficit valley. Flat, long-term pacing structures (e.g. 0.60) widen the valley, requiring heavier working capital support.

Friction Point: Pacing Exponent (d)
SCALING RISKS

Insolvent Scaling

Scaling daily installs by 5x without increasing capital reserves causes insolvency. If starting reserves cannot cover the peak capital deficit, campaigns run dry mid-payback cycle.

Friction Point: Deficit Maxima
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY

IRR Discount Factors

To scale budgets safely, target bid caps must discount long-term LTV goals by a target Internal Rate of Return (IRR). High IRR targets buffer against capital delays and platform volatility.

Friction Point: IRR Discounts
WORKING CAPITAL & USER ACQUISITION STRATEGY AUDIT

Structure safe scaling boundaries for your campaigns.

Product teams regularly burn through working capital because their scaling targets outstrip their reinvestment cycles. We audit your LTV curves, map reinvestment lags across store networks, calculate peak capital drawdowns, and structure safe bidding caps.

Book a Capital Strategy Sprint
FAQ

Common questions.

What does this calculator do?

It simulates daily cash flow for a scaling UA campaign over 180 days, showing your peak capital drawdown, the day cash exposure is deepest, your maximum safe daily install volume, and both an IRR-targeted and a capital-safe maximum bid cap.

What inputs do I need?

Starting cash reserves, daily paid install target, current CPA/CAC, expected cohort LTV at day 180, the LTV curve pacing exponent, target payback window in days, target annual IRR, and the store reinvestment delay (the lag before store payouts arrive). Scaling profile presets are available for bootstrapped, VC-backed, weekly-reinvest, and low-margin scenarios.

How is the maximum safe bid cap calculated?

The model runs a day-by-day cash balance simulation over 180 days: daily spend (installs times CPA) is subtracted, and daily revenue from cohorts acquired at least one reinvestment-delay period earlier is added back in, using a power-law LTV curve shaped by the pacing exponent. The capital-safe bid cap is found by testing increasing CPA values and keeping the highest one that never drives the cash balance negative across the simulation. A separate IRR-targeted cap discounts day-180 LTV by your target annual IRR over the payback window.