MONETIZATION UTILITY · SHEET 09

Paid-to-Organic UA Spillage &
K-Factor Grader.

Isolate your pure organic baseline from marketing-induced chart spillage and virality. Drag sliders to compute true blended customer acquisition costs and scan for organic cannibalization risk.

This is for growth and UA leads who need to know whether their reported organic installs are real or an artifact of paid-driven chart visibility. Run it before raising bids or budget caps, since blended eCAC — not reported CPA — is what should drive payback and scaling decisions. It also flags when campaigns are cannibalizing brand or organic search traffic you would have gotten for free.

FILE · SPILL_09

UA Inputs

01 · Monthly Paid Installs
02 · Reported Campaign CPA ($) $
03 · Reported Organic Installs
05 · Direct Viral K-Factor
06 · Chart Spillage Coeff

UA Spillage Outcomes

Effective K-Factor
0.00
Combined viral lift plus store chart visibility spillage
Pure Organic Baseline
0
Underlying non-campaign brand searches and backlinks
Monthly UA Spend
$0.00
Total campaign marketing budget allocated to paid installs
ATTRIBUTION BREAKDOWN: MARKETING SPILLAGE VS. BASELINE
Paid Installs
Viral Organics
Chart Spillage
Pure Organic Baseline
SPILLAGE CURVE: EFFECTIVE K-FACTOR VS. PAID ACQUISITION VOLUME
02Attribution Strategy

The math of attribution overlap.

Paid campaign scaling is non-linear. Ignoring spillage leads to over-spending on CPA, while failing to check for cannibalization hides marketing inefficiencies.

CHART VELOCITY

Logarithmic Chart Scaling

Store algorithms index download velocity. Paid UA pushes your app up the charts, triggering secondary organic traffic. However, this spillage saturates logarithmically as you reach top-tier rankings.

Acquisition Loop: Chart Scaling
CANNIBALIZATION RISK

Organic Cannibalization

If your marketing campaigns target search keywords that match your organic brand name, you will pay for users who would have installed the app for free. This is shown as a negative baseline offset in our model.

Acquisition Loop: Cannibalization
BLENDEDCAC Hurdle

CPA vs. eCAC Spreads

A reported CPA of $3.00 can represent an effective CAC of $2.10 if K-factors are high. Bidding limits should align with your blended eCAC rather than reported campaign CPA to scale campaigns profitably.

Acquisition Loop: CAC Spreads
PLATFORM DYNAMICS

iOS vs. Android Spillage

Android ranks propagate fast, maximizing chart spillage yields. Post-ATT iOS relies on search and contextual ads, lowering the chart spillage coefficient and increasing the importance of direct viral multipliers.

Acquisition Loop: Platform Spillage
UA ECONOMICS & ATTRIBUTION AUDIT ENGAGEMENT

Determine your true marketing return.

Marketing campaigns frequently over-attribute organic baseline traffic, creating false ROI readouts. We audit tracking layers, isolate organic spillage, calculate platform decay limits, and build custom bidding dashboards to help growth leads scale campaigns safely.

Book a UA Attribution Audit
FAQ

Common questions.

What does this calculator do?

It isolates your pure organic install baseline from marketing-induced chart spillage and virality, then computes your true blended effective CAC (eCAC) and effective K-factor, and flags when paid campaigns are cannibalizing installs you would have gotten for free.

What inputs do I need?

Monthly paid installs, your reported campaign CPA, reported organic installs, platform focus (Android or iOS), your direct viral K-factor, and a chart spillage coefficient. You can also autofill genre benchmark defaults for hypercasual, hybridcasual, casual, midcore, or subscription apps.

How is organic spillage isolated from paid UA?

Reported organic installs are split into three components: viral organics (paid installs times your viral K-factor), chart spillage organics (a logarithmic function of paid install volume, the spillage coefficient, and a platform factor that discounts iOS spillage relative to Android), and a remaining pure organic baseline. If the marketing-induced organics exceed your reported organics, the baseline goes negative and the tool flags cannibalization.