Definition

Mix shift.

Also called: Simpson's paradox, Composition effect

When a blended metric changes because the composition of users changed — by country, platform or source — rather than because behaviour within any group changed.

Blended retention can hold steady while a key market deteriorates, if another segment improves or grows. Blended ARPDAU can rise purely because Tier-1 users became a larger share. This is sometimes called Simpson’s paradox in its extreme form.

The fix is to read the segments that receive the next decision — the markets getting the next UA dollar — before trusting the average.

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Blended Retention Mix AnalyzerSplit blended retention into segments and see how a mix shift can hold the average flat while the market you are scaling burns.
UA Geo Budget PlannerRank markets by yield-to-cost using your CPI, ad yield and retention per country tier, and see where the next dollar earns most.

Field notes

The Averages Trap: Why Cohort Blending Hides Burning MarketsBlended D30 can stay flat while the market receiving your next UA dollar deteriorates. An average is useful for reporting; it is not automatically the right number for allocation.
Recurrent Revenue Percentage Is Composition, Not HealthTake-Two reported recurrent consumer spending at 84% of net revenue in Q1 FY2027. That number describes revenue mix — it cannot tell you whether the quarter was healthy.

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Field notes

Related terms